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BNEF: renewable energy off grid market outlook

At present, the solar power supply capacity of emerging markets in India, Pakistan and Nigeria has been unable to meet the electricity demand in these regions. Commercial and residential users often need to meet their electricity demand with their own power generating equipment, mainly diesel or gasoline generators. However, the cost of such power generation is often high, so it has become a major replacement target for clean power generation technologies such as solar power system and batteries.

According to customs data, in 2016, sales of generators in emerging countries and some island countries were as high as 615000, with a total value of $4 billion 800 million. However, the equipment capital expenditure still accounts for only a small fraction of the user's spontaneous electricity costs, and the greater cost pressure is on fuel costs. A small generator (375kVA) sold over the last 5 years could consume more than $40 billion worth of diesel (excluding generators) as a conservative load, according to conservative estimates.

Self owned generators are an important part of the power system in these regions. Over the past 5 years, the capacity of new generators in South Africa, Nigeria and Philippines has been 2 to 5 times higher than the capacity of the new grid.

Still, some diesel equipment companies are having a hard time. Between 2011 and 2016, although the sales of generators increased, the profits (capital expenditure) of generator sales dropped by 11%. For example, small power unit (75kVA) of the sales surge, but the average price fell by 30%, this has to a certain extent, weakened the power generation technology of solar panel system or high upfront costs attractive.

Here are some of the statistics we have compiled:

29GW

Total capacity of diesel generators sold to emerging global markets (excluding China) in 2017

5 billion dollars

Annual capital expenditure of diesel generators in Global Emerging Markets (excluding China)

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