The cumulative photovoltaic installed capacity in the Netherlands by 2050 may reach 180GW

The cumulative photovoltaic installed capacity in the Netherlands by 2050 may reach 180GW

According to a research report recently released by the Dutch Association of National and Regional Electricity and Natural Gas Network Operators, Netbeheer Nederland, it is expected that the cumulative installed capacity of photovoltaic systems in the Netherlands may reach 100GW to 180GW by 2050.

This report is an updated version of the "Overall Infrastructure Outlook from 2030 to 2050", written by Dutch consulting firms Berenschot and Kalavasta. This report outlines four growth scenarios for achieving climate neutral energy supply in the Netherlands by 2050, based on four different policy outcomes.

The 'Regional Scenario' predicts the largest expansion of the Dutch photovoltaic market, with an astonishing installed capacity of 180GW. In previous reports, this assumption was only 125GW. In this scenario, 58GW comes from utility scale photovoltaic systems, 125GW comes from rooftop photovoltaic systems, of which 67GW is rooftop photovoltaic systems installed in commercial and industrial buildings, and 58GW is rooftop photovoltaic systems installed in residential buildings.

The characteristic of this scenario is the high degree of electrification of the electrical system, a decrease in industrial activity, and the Netherlands achieving self-sufficiency in electricity supply. Natural gas will still play the role of backup power supply, or be provided in the form of green natural gas from local biomass and green hydrogen from wind and photovoltaic power generation. It is expected that the cumulative installed capacity of wind power generation facilities will reach 60GW by 2050, and the backup power will be expanded to 20GW.

Under the "national scenario", the Dutch government will play a leading role in the energy transformation, and the renewable energy power generation of utility scale will occupy a larger share than distributed generation. It is expected that by 2050, the total installed capacity of wind power facilities in the country will reach 92GW, the installed capacity of photovoltaic systems will reach 172GW, the backup power supply will reach 18GW, and hydrogen energy will reach 15GW.

The 'European scenario' involves introducing the theory of a carbon dioxide tax at the EU level. Under this prospect, the Netherlands is expected to remain an energy importing country and prioritize clean energy from Europe.

Under the 'European scenario', it is expected that the installed photovoltaic systems in the Netherlands will reach 126.3GW by 2050, of which 35GW will come from ground based photovoltaic power stations, and the total electricity demand is expected to be much higher than the 'regional scenario' and 'national scenario'.

The 'international scenario' assumes a fully open international market and strong climate policies implemented globally. The Netherlands will not be self-sufficient and will continue to rely on imports.

Industry experts say that the Netherlands needs to develop renewable energy on a large scale in a strategic location. Under the "international scenario", it is expected that the installed capacity of photovoltaic systems installed in the Netherlands will reach 100GW by 2050. This means that the Netherlands still needs to install more offshore wind power facilities, as the North Sea has favorable wind power conditions and can participate in international competition in electricity prices.

Researchers say that by 2040, residential photovoltaic systems installed in the Netherlands will be able to generate 55% of electricity demand.

According to the latest statistical data released by the Dutch Bureau of Statistics CBS, as of the end of June 2022, the cumulative installed capacity of photovoltaic systems in the Netherlands has reached 16.5GW. The company also stated that the country installed a 3803MW photovoltaic system in 2021 and a 3882MW photovoltaic system in 2022.