After several price cuts, in just one month, silicon materials, silicon wafers and battery chips have successively started the price rise mode. First of all, data shows that the third-party price of silicon materials is 70,000 yuan/ton, while the recent transaction price has reached 75,000 yuan/ton. In the future, it will soon rise to 80,000 yuan/ton or even higher, which is a strong rise.

Now the rise has spread through the industrial chain to the midstream. On July 24th Longi, a leading silicon chip maker, and Tongwei, a leading battery maker, both raised their prices for August, the first time this year that they have raised prices.According to longji's latest pricing of mono silicon wafers in August, G1 silicon wafer rose 0.1 yuan/piece, adjusted to 2.53 yuan/piece, up 4%, and M6 silicon wafer rose 0.11 yuan/piece, adjusted to 2.73 yuan/piece, up 4.2%.

The question that everyone is more concerned about is, what is the logic of the overall price increase of silicon materials, silicon wafers, and solar cells? Is the price increase sustainable?

First of all, our analysis found that the continuous increase in the price of silicon materials is obviously affected by external factors: As nearly 50% of domestic polysilicon production capacity is concentrated in Xinjiang, now affected by the epidemic, logistics and transportation are restricted and shipments are blocked; in addition, in July Three large silicon material manufacturers conducted overhauls or equipment maintenance. In addition, explosions occurred in two large polysilicon plants in Xinjiang, which further aggravated the tight situation of production capacity supply and demand. These are external reasons for the increase.

In particular, the logic of solar cell price increases is clearer: Firstly, after the global economy restarted, photovoltaic installed capacity exceeded expectations. Judging from industry trends, the leading module companies in the third quarter have already had their production schedules full. The latest bid opening prices have seen high-efficiency module prices rise slightly to 1.5-1.6 yuan/W. It is expected that in the fourth quarter of the domestic rush for installation and overseas recovery trends, module prices will stabilize and rise. Take Tongwei’s solar cell sales price as an example, even if the future solar cell price rises to 0.9 yuan/W, it is actually correct The impact of the terminal is also limited, and will not affect the market (component side) demand; secondly, the demand for high-efficiency and large-size cells is becoming more and more obvious, and the supply of this part is limited, and some leading companies have first-mover advantages. Products are also more competitive in the market.

It is currently foreseeable that as the overall demand for photovoltaics continues to strengthen in the third and fourth quarters, it will form a strong support for the prices of photovoltaic products. In the future, as long as the underlying logic such as demand growth, high efficiency, and large size remains unchanged, the prices of high-efficiency and high-quality photovoltaic products are likely to rise further. This is the general trend.